My Child Is 3 and We Are Thinking of Trying for a Baby

Desire one… or three? (Paradigm: Christoph Eberle/Plainpicture)

IT'S a question many people will ask themselves at some point in their lives: when should I start a family unit? If you know how many children you'd similar, and whether or not you would consider, or could afford, IVF, a calculator model can advise when to start trying for your starting time child.

Happy with only one? The model recommends you get started by age 32 to take a 90 per cent hazard of realising your dream without IVF. A brood of three would mean starting past age 23 to have the same chance of success. Expect until 35 and the odds are 50:50 (run across "When to become started").

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The suggestions are based on averages pulled from a swathe of data and then don't give a personal prediction. And of form, things aren't this simple in real life – if only family size and feelings about IVF were the but factors to consider when planning a family. But the thought behind the model is to assistance people make a conclusion by condensing all the information out there into an attainable form.

"We have tried to fill up a missing link in the decision-making process," says Dik Habbema at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, the netherlands, one of the creators of the model. "My son is 35 and many of his friends accept a problem deciding when to have children because there are and so many things they want to practise."

It'due south a scenario that volition exist familiar to many; the age at which people accept their starting time child has been creeping upward over the concluding 40 or so years. For instance, the average age at which a woman has her first child is 28 in the U.k. and has reached 30 in Italian republic, Spain and Switzerland. In the US, the birth rate for women in their 20s has hit a record low, while the figures for those over 35 accept increased over the last few decades.

The decision is more than pressing for women thanks to their limited supply of eggs, which steadily drop in quantity and quality with age. Female fertility is thought to start failing at 30, with a more significant fall after the historic period of 35.

Men are thought to accept more than time. "We do know that in that location are male historic period effects, but they don't kick in severely until a man is well into his forties," says Allan Pacey, professor of andrology at the Academy of Sheffield in the UK.

"If you are relaxed about having 3 kids you lot tin look until 35, but you've got to outset early to exist certain"

The new model incorporates data from studies that appraise how fertility naturally declines with historic period. The team took information on natural fertility from population data collected over 300 years upwardly to the 1970s, which includes information on 58,000 women. While such data has been criticised as being out of date, information technology represents the best insights into fertility from a population that wasn't regularly using contraceptives, says Habbema.

"We need data from populations in which couples try to have equally many children every bit possible, and these populations are scarce," he says. Figures taken from hundreds of years agone are consistent with those taken more recently, he adds.

Surprising results

The model also includes information on IVF success rates for women of diverse ages based on 2013 figures from holland (Human Reproduction, doi.org/6ck).

One affair information technology doesn't business relationship for, however, is the age of the prospective father. While older men are known to be more than likely to pass on genetic mutations that increase a kid's hazard of conditions like schizophrenia, age doesn't seem to strongly affect a couple's fertility until the male parent is in his late 40s. "Our results are by and large valid for couples where the homo is not more than than 10 years older than the woman," says Habbema. Pacey agrees that this is reasonable, and says that the model is "as good as it can be".

The model is based on averages so won't employ to every woman on an individual basis as at that place is a lot of variation, simply it could be very helpful, says David Keefe at New York Academy Langone Medical Center. "It makes explicit certain statistics that don't sink in for many people," he says.

Some of the results may come as a surprise. For example, pregnancy remains an choice for women in their early 40s – with the gamble of conceiving virtually 50 per cent. At the other finish of the spectrum, the early on age at which the model suggests y'all should first having children if you desire a xc per cent chance of having three – 23 – may be a daze to a generation who are waiting until their late twenties and early on thirties to even consider the prospect.

On reflection, however, the figure makes sense, says Pacey. "You lot've got to factor in that people don't necessarily have children in quick succession," he says. "What it is saying is that if yous're relaxed about having 3 children, you can expect until you're 35, but y'all've got to start early to be sure."

"In full general, young people are very optimistic virtually their reproductive potential," says Ulla Waldenström at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden. "They besides have a lot of religion in reproduction technologies – in that location is a stiff belief that if you lot can't become meaning naturally, at that place is always IVF, although it is far from a guarantee."

"At that place is a strong belief that if yous can't get meaning naturally, at that place is IVF – merely it's no guarantee"

According to the model, IVF simply increases the upper historic period for starting a family of any size by a few years. "IVF has limited touch on, and that might surprise people," says Habbema.

Habbema admits that other factors volition influence decisions made by potential parents, such as their career and relationship stability, and the available childcare resources. "It'due south not piece of cake to make recommendations," he says. "I hope the model will play a office in making decisions easier."

Women in their 30s who desire to accept children needn't worry still, says Keefe. "Some might call up: 'oh my gosh, I have to get started', simply for many women that'southward not truthful," he says. "For women at the age margins, this could help nudge them one manner or another, but we don't want to forcefulness people to change their lives."

Pacey thinks the table should be widely circulated. "The tabular array ought to be photocopied and put upwards on the clinic wall," he says. "Nosotros should besides exist aiming this at sixth formers [college students] and university students, so that they're aware of how to plan their life." The best way to inform both young men and women, without pressuring or scaring them, might be to integrate fertility awareness into lessons on contraception that are routinely delivered at schools.

Such education programmes are being launched in Sweden, says Waldenström, and the British Fertility Society is planning to run a similar scheme in the UK.

"We haven't got a time machine we can put people in… that's simply a blunt reality," says Pacey. "Everyone thinks they can expect – this shows that yous can't."

Leader: "IVF can be both a blessing and a curse"

Expert's view: We need to get the message right

Adam Balen, chair of the British Fertility Order

The data captured in the fertility model is extremely important to have out there. There's been a lot of publicity recently nearly the turn down in fertility with age – not all of it well informed. This is such an emotionally charged subject with such fundamental consequences, we need to get the message correct.

In June, for example, one scientist suggested that women who haven't started a family by the age of 35 should freeze their eggs. Simply this doesn't guarantee a family – eggs don't always freeze well, and you demand to freeze quite a few to give yourself reliable insurance.

It's also been suggested that all men should accept their sperm frozen at the age of eighteen. That's even more than ludicrous, considering while male fertility falls with age, the effects don't kick in until the late forties.

Young people today expect to have consummate command over their life. The letters about unwanted pregnancy are articulate – you can control that with contraception. Simply when it comes to getting pregnant things are less clear. For nigh people, it'due south not as elementary as coming off the pill.

It is our duty to educate people about the turn down in fertility with age. There is also a case for providing fertility checks to couples. At the moment, such tests aren't widely available to healthy people, just I don't run across why they shouldn't be.

Couples need support so they tin first their families early on. Women who accept children in their 20s are more than likely to attain their desired family size but tin can as well expect lower lifetime earnings than women who start later on. We need to ensure women aren't disadvantaged at work, and sort the lack of childcare facilities so we can enable young couples to establish their careers and families at the aforementioned time.

As told to Jessica Hamzelou

This article appeared in print under the headline "The fertility estimator"

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Source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730324-100-when-should-you-get-pregnant-computer-knows-age-to-start-trying/

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